Possibilities - V.FC 28.8k Update, What's Real? 3/94

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V.FC 28.8K UPDATE, WHAT'S REAL? 3/94
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*** From March 1994 Possibilities Newsletter ***
*** Copyright 1994 by eSoft, Inc.  All Rights Reserved ***

It has been three months since the first Hayes V.FC modems shipped.  In many
ways this was a "shot heard 'round the world" and it has sent the modem 
industry into one of the most frenetic market positioning battles the 
computer industry has seen in years.  During these three months the 
following has become clear:

o 28.8kbps is real and it makes a big difference in the cost and feasibility 
  of many applications.  Because of this, consumers want it.

o Like each new modem technology before it, 28.8k modems will take 6 to 12 
  months to become a solid, fully debugged, technology.  Meanwhile, we will 
  have to deal with ongoing firmware updates.

o Those companies who are now able to ship V.FC modems are manufacturing 
  them as fast as they can and are just barely able to keep up with their 
  orders.

o Hayes scored a BIG market positioning win by having V.FC first, and every 
  other modem company is scrambling to figure out how to respond. 

The result of all of this is that nearly every modem maker is talking about 
having their own V.FC modem, but they are not all being quite honest about 
their plans.

Some companies are indeed shipping V.FC modems which are compatible with the 
Hayes unit, and most of them are cutting prices below even the aggressive 
Hayes pricing levels.  Others are in beta test with V.FC modems.  But some 
modem makers have decided on a strategy of "talking about V.FC" while never 
really planning to make one.  Instead they are hoping to make an "end run" 
around V.FC by waiting until the V.34 standard is settled and producing a 
V.34 28.8k modem as their first product.

The "wait for V.34" strategy is based on the hope that V.FC will not obtain 
enough market penetration to require them to support it, or, alternatively, 
that all V.FC modem makers will be forced by public pressure to provide a 
low-cost V.34 upgrade which will convert the V.FC installed base to V.34 
modems quickly -- removing their non-support of V.FC as a market issue.

With the marketplace in this condition, it can be very difficult to tell 
what is real.  What we know is real is what we have seen in our lab.  eSoft 
has seen production V.FC modems from Hayes, Microcom, and Boca Research and 
beta units from Supra.  At the time this article went to press, we still had 
not seen any other V.FC modems in person (despite promises).

Other modem makers seem either stuck in their development phase or are 
purposely clouding the issue while engaging in the "wait for V.34" strategy.  
The strangest case in this category is ZOOM.  At ONE BBSCON last August, 
they took orders (and money) for V.FC modems at $99.  They indicated these 
would ship before the end of 1993.  So far, no one has received one that we 
know of.  eSoft has not received a beta unit, despite many promises that we 
would "any day now".  Meanwhile, I received a message from a TBBS sysop in 
Holland that he had received a ZOOM V.FC unit and wondered how to configure 
TBBS to support it!  This story is representative of just how manic things 
are at modem companies today regarding 28.8k modems.

With the advent of 28.8k modems, ISDN, and other high speed communications 
links the performance of BBS software has become an issue.  TBBS has shown 
that it is indeed the only software which can really run V.FC modems at full 
speed.  Galacticomm scurried back to their development labs to work on a new 
release that runs well enough that they can CLAIM 28.8k support, but even 
that new version falls well short of what TBBS 2.2 can deliver today.  No 
other BBS software vendor has even claimed to come close to delivering the 
type of performance that TBBS can with these modems.

While we know that TBBS has always led the field in performance, the only 
way to establish the real capabilities of software is through laboratory 
testing.  I have decided that it is time for such a test and will be funding 
the largest professionally designed performance test of BBS software ever 
undertaken.  This test will take two months to plan, and most likely about 
two weeks to perform under controlled conditions.  At the end of it, we will 
have hard numbers on all of the primary and many of the secondary BBS 
software packages.  It should be interesting, I look forward to the 
challenge!

PS0394-4
Rev. 3/94

Copyright (C) 1994 eSoft, Inc., All Rights Reserved.  Permission granted
to distribute this file in its entirety, without modification, to any
interested party.  Any other use requires the written permission of
eSoft, Inc.

IMPORTANT:  The information herein is subject to change without notice.
Please call or write to confirm factual information of importance to you
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