Possibilities - Letter From Phil 12/90

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LETTER FROM PHIL 12/90
----------------------

*** From December 1990 Possibilities Newsletter ***
*** Copyright 1990 by eSoft, Inc.  All Rights Reserved ***

Letter from Phil
by Phil Becker

I have just returned from the fall COMDEX computer show.  This is the largest 
show in the PC industry -- over 125,000 attend it each year -- and it is a 
good annual checkup on the condition and direction of the PC industry. 

After spending most of 1990 watching economists trying to locate a recession
(wouldn't you know one if you saw it -- what's to discuss?) and hearing 
industry pundits tell me where things were going with PCs, it was a uniquely 
satisfying COMDEX for me this year.  It appears that there is still a PC 
industry, that it is still growing, and that it has finally discovered what to 
do with a modem! 

And what modems they are!  High performance at low cost was the theme of every 
modem maker at the show.  All of the big modem makers are making V.32/V.42bis 
modems as fast as they can but still failing to meet the demand!  Hayes has 
gone to three shifts and still can't make Ultras fast enough.  U.S. Robotics 
is doubling manufacturing capacity every three months but is still falling 
behind.  Even new modem makers were all smiles as they took all the orders 
they could fill. 

As if this wasn't enough, every major modem maker was either showing or 
announcing V.32bis modems for shipment in the next few months.  V.32bis means 
14,400bps bi-directional speed in a standard modem. That's six times faster 
than a 2400bps modem -- meaning you can transfer in 10 minutes what used to 
take an hour -- and any V.32bis modem will talk to any other company's V.32bis 
modem properly. 

In addition to the array of communications hardware being shown, there was a 
new awareness of the BBS marketplace.  Most modem companies either now have a 
SYSOP program or are looking into forming one.  Your importance has finally 
sunk in! 

TBBS was prominently on display in several booths at the show, as many 
companies are coming to understand that customer support BBSs are a vital part 
of their product and customer support system.  I am gratified that TBBS has 
now been selected for use by more Fortune 1000 companies than any other BBS 
software, and as far as I could see was the only BBS on display at the show 
outside of a BBS company's booth. All major modem companies now use TBBS as 
well as DataStorm (Procomm Plus) and it is becoming clear which product serves 
its customer's needs the best. 

Awareness of BBS technology is showing up in places you never would have seen 
it even six months ago.  Bill Machrone (Editor-in-Chief of PC magazine) ended 
a recent editorial with the words "Get optimal, get online" after describing 
how a vendor's BBS had solved a big problem for him.  In that same issue it 
was stated that "PC users deserve much of the credit for driving the 
improvements in the technology of modems for dial-up lines".  I would go 
farther by saying that if it were not for the popularity of BBSs there still 
wouldn't be any reasonably priced high speed modems.  All of this technology 
advancement has been driven by BBS users who showed its value and created the 
demand. 

I also visited with members of the computer press who last year were flatly 
not interested in BBS technology.  This year they were telling me that this 
will be the hottest technology of the 1990s.  I don't think that is true, but 
it is nice they have finally noticed what you are doing out there! 

BBS technology offers unique solutions to many communications problems that 
are not possible or feasible any other way.  These problems are small enough 
that they are not worth $500,000 and two man years to solve.  However, the 
problems are large enough that they impact us every day in many ways.  The 
need to move data from one place to another is quickly becoming the major 
bottleneck in commerce.  The FAX machine's popularity demonstrates that, and 
it can only solve a very minor fraction of these problems. 

So I expect 1991 to be a year of tremendous growth in the BBS industry.  We 
are entering the "golden age" of modem communications -- it will be a fun 
ride. 

- END -
PS1290-1
Rev. 12/90

Copyright (C) 1994 eSoft, Inc., All Rights Reserved.  Permission granted
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