SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de KT7H
ZCZC AP28 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14
ARLP014
From Tad Cook, KT7H Seattle, WA  April 8, 1994
To all radio amateurs

This was a terrible week for propagation.  There were
several days with no visible sunspots, the solar flux was
down about ten points from the previous week, and the
geomagnetic field was very active. K indices were at four
or five most of the time.  Probably the worst day was
April 3 when the A index was 48.

The K index is updated every three hours, and can be
monitored on WWV at 18 minutes after each hour, along with
the A index and Solar Flux.  The WWV propagation broadcast
can also be heard over the telephone any time at 303-497-
3235.

The K index is an indicator of stability of the Earth's
geomagnetic field.  A single point change in the K index
is quite significant. Values below three indicate
generally good conditions, while above three means that
conditions are difficult.  A K index of five is quite bad.

The A index is updated once per day, and is based on the K
indices for the previous 24 hours.  A one point change in
the A index is not very significant.  Generally values
below ten indicate good conditions, and above ten
indicates a poorer outlook.

Look for active geomagnetic conditions to continue for the
next week.  Solar flux should rise slowly to peak above
100 around April 19 or 20.  A indices may not calm down to
stable levels until after April 21.  Then look for more
stormy conditions as old problem areas on the Sun rotate
back into view around the end of the month.

Sunspot Numbers from March 31 through April 6 were 61, 28,
0, 0, 0, 11 and 0, with a mean of 14.3.  10.7 cm flux was
85, 82.5, 79.3, 77.4, 77.1, 77.1 and 73.2, with a mean of
78.8.

The path projection for this week is from Salt Lake City
to Honolulu.

80 meters looks good from 0430 to 1400z, peaking from 0630
to 1230. 40 meters should be open from 0300 to 1400, with
the best conditions from 0500 to 1300.  30 meters should
be good from 0100 to 0830 and again from 1600 to 1800.
Check 20 meters from 1630 to 0700, with the best period
from 0400 to 0630.  17 meters should be open from 1900 to
0330.  15 meters from 2100 to 0000, and on some days as
early as 1900 and as late as 0200.  12 and 10 meters do
not look good, but on some days 12 meters may be open from
2030 to 0100.
NNNN
/EX
