

                              AIDS - THE TRUTH

                              AV Systems, Inc.
                               P.O. Box 60533
                          Santa Barbara, CA 93160


             This  disk includes a definitive paper you can read  by
        type/inputting "READ NOTES.TXT" when you see the ">"  cursor
        after exiting this program.

             You  will also find a teaching tutorial which  you  can
        run  by  type/inputting "TUTOR" at the ">" cursor.  It  will
        interactively teach you about the disease.

        The   statistical   laboratory simulation may  be   run   by
        type/inputting "LAB" at the ">" cursor and you will want  to
        have data for that program. The following is a record of the
        numbers of cases from 1981 to 1993.  If you want a  printout
        of  this data, center it in the screen with the up and  down
        arrow keys and press "PRINT SCREEN."


          YEAR  CASES: OLD    NEW      TOTAL    %CHANGE     DEATHS
          ----  ---------   -----      -----     -------    ------
          1981        ?       100        100        ?           5
          1982       95       200        295       310         25
          1983      270       600        870       322        100
          1984      770      1710       2480       322        200
          1985     2280      4559       6839       300        600
          1986     6239     14002      20241       324       1710
          1987    18531     12079      30614       165       4559
          1988    26051     18844      44895       172      14002
          1989    30893     29396      60289       195      12079
          1990    48210     45858      94068       195      18884
          1991    75224     71538     146762       195      29396
          1992   117366     59785     177151       151      45858
          1993   131293     54404     185697       141      71538

        Note:   The number of cases expanded explosively until  1986
        when  the  disease was announced, behavior changed  and  the
        number  of  cases  fell dramatically.   Then,  condoms  were
        promoted  as  a preventative, and the the  number  of  cases
        rose,  but as their failure has been publicized behavior  is
        changing and the number of cases is falling.  When the  rate
        of  change falls below 100% the disease will be in  decline.
        At  the current pace of rate reduction this may happen in  a
        few years.

             When you run the simulation assume a declining rate  of
        infection, say 10%, which would give rates of 130, 120, 110,
        100, 90, and so on, in subsequent years.  You will then  see
        what will happen in the various populations affected by this
        disease.

             Touch  "Esc" to exit this program and type/input  "LAB"
        to run the simulation or "TUTOR" for the tutorial.

             This  is  the demo version of the program and  the  LAB
        program  will not compute.  If you want a  complete  system,
        with a function LAB program, send $9.95, plus $3.00 shipping
        and  insurance, to:  AV Systems, Inc. P.O. Box 60533,  Santa
        Barbara, CA 93160.

             If  you would like a free catalog of our  software  for
        IBM  MS  DOS computers and clones, or Apple  II  educational
        software,  email  us at:  CompuServe 70415,1420  or  on  the
        Internet  at  "avsystem@rain.org" or U.S. Mail at  P.O.  Box
        60533, Santa Barbara, CA 93160, tel. 805 - 569 - 1618.

        Thank you, Adrian Vance


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