
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de KT7H
 
ZCZC AP63
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49  ARLP049
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  November 26, 1994
To all radio amateurs 
 
SB PROP ARL ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de KT7H
 
Except for the low solar flux values, conditions have been fairly
good, as indicated by low geomagnetic indices.  Over the past few
days there have been many periods where the K index was one or zero.
A K index of three is what we normally expect, and anything below
three is a good indicator of lower absorption and stable conditions.
 
Too bad that these stable conditions are not expected to continue.
The DX contest this weekend will probably see the adverse effects of
solar wind from a coronal hole.  The bad effects are expected to
peak late in the contest, and will be most noticeable in the higher
latitudes and over polar routes.
 
Recurrence of effects due to solar rotation suggests more unstable
conditions centered around December 17, although a lower level of
activity is expected, compared with what we should see this weekend.
Look for the solar flux values to decline over the next week down to
the low seventies, where it is expected to remain through the first
few weeks of December.
 
Sunspot Numbers for November 17 through 23 were 29, 28, 23, 22, 11,
11 and 12, with a mean of 19.4.  10.7 cm flux was 79.1, 80, 78.4,
78.8, 77.8, 76.3 and 77.5, with a mean of 78.3.
 
The path projection for this week is from the center of the United
States to Vietnam.
 
80 meters should be good from 1030z to 1400z, and 40 meters from
1000z to 1100z and again from 1400z to 1530z.  On some days there
may be propagation during the 1100z to 1400z period.  30 meters
should be open from 1500z to 1730z and from 2230z to 2345z.  20
meters may be open on some days from 1600z to 1730z, and on fewer
occasions up to an hour earlier and two hours later.  On a few days
there may also be an opening after 2230z on this band.  The bands
above 20 meters do not look good for this path at this time.
NNNN
/EX
